Designing for uncertainty – intelligence, early warning and strategic forecasting in multilateral security institutions
In this project I investigate how the design of international security institutions impinges on their capacity to manage uncertainty. From an academic viewpoint, the project aims to contribute to the field of institutional design as well as the nascent field of intelligence studies. From a policy perspective, the project will develop important insights into how institutions can be designed in relation to uncertainty and with what effects. These are relevant and pressing questions in times when states increasingly seek to act collectively in the security field and organisational entities are designed and re-designed for this aim. Comparative work is currently being done on the EU, NATO, AU and UN.
European Global Strategy
A think tank-driven process designed to stimulate debate on the future direction of the European Union’s external relations. In May 2013 the report: “Towards a European Global Strategy: Securing Influence in a Changing World” was presented in Brussels and the respective capitals of the four organisers. It has since attracted interest and spurred discussion among academics and policy makers around Europe and America at a time when important questions of Europe’s global role are high on the agenda for politicians and think tanks alike. Björn Fägersten was a co-author of the EGS report and has frequently been asked to present and debate the topic in various media and policy settings.
Political risk management – aligning arts and science
Political factors and events – such as sovereign defaults, revolts and social strife –are of increasing importance for commercial actors investing abroad as they can make or break markets overnight. Yet the analysis and management of such political risks are often patchy or based solely on macroeconomic data. The project aims to draw on new institutional theory and its relation to uncertainty in order to close the gap between the art of political risk analysis and the science of politics.
The euro crisis and the transformation of European cooperation
Information to follow.